Mobility in the year 2030:
interviews from the future
Scenario "Deliberate slowing down"
Scenario "The market makes you mobile"
Scenario "Change direction for solidarity"
Putting figures to the scenarios
Today, the idea of sustainable mobility is largely an abstract, even visionary, concept. Under the NRP 41 numerous prognoses and analyses have been made, technical calculations performed, and social-scientific ideas discussed. But what will our daily life really look like in thirty years' time? Four conversations from 2030 show visions that are imaginable today.
In this scenario, the criteria of sustainability are fulfilled without noteworthy changes in behaviour. The maxim is (still): the further and faster, the better. This is made possible by a massive technological effort, which is strategically fostered by the government.
The Schnell family live in a Swiss suburb. Jasmine (45) works for a bank, Kevin (44) is a geriatric nurse. They have two children: Daisy (17) and Peter (8).
Jasmin S.: We have a 5-door family car, the "Nova", weighing 400 kg, two "Stella" electric scooters and of course four bicycles. It is very important to me to be able to drive somewhere quickly and independently.
Peter S.: I think it is great to ride pillion with my father on the "Stella", without being shut it; to buzz around the neighbourhood at 100 km/h. In the summer holidays I will be flying to visit my Internet penpal in Hawaii on the "Streamliner", a wide-body plane for intercontinental flights - I'm really looking forward to it.
So mobility is both important to you and expensive?
Kevin S.: Quite honestly, I am often worried that mobility eats up almost half the household budget. We actually wanted to move to a bigger flat - but we couldn't afford it.
Looking back, what was the most important factor that set us on course for hyperefficient transport?
Jasmine S.: When the natural catastrophes mounted up in the new century it became clear to everyone that something had to change. IT and gene technology also changed many areas of life. Some laws were then passed, setting target values that got the car industry all worked up. Today we use our vehicles about an eighth as much as we did thirty years ago.
In a profound change of values, Switzerland has recognised that promoting neighbourly contacts and local circulation enhance the quality of life. Both economic growth and the costs of transport and mobility are reduced.
Monika Weiler and Philippe Studer live in a city of about 100,000 inhabitants. She (44) is co-owner of a software company, he (42) is a tax adviser in local government.
Philippe S.: We usually get about on our bicycles; and if the weather is very bad, there is a bus stop nearby. To transport goods or for a trip to the mountains, we get a car from MobiSoft, a car sharing company.
Monika W.: Our company does not have a central structure, but is very closely net-worked. We three business partners actually see each other only once a week in Bern, and then I take the train.
Philippe S.: We consciously chose to live near to my place of work, because there is a tax advantage to this. Fortunately the buses are much more comfortable than they used to be - I still remember with a shudder the discomfort of the buses in my younger days.
And how do you spend your free time?
Monika W.: Our leisure time is mostly spent locally, in our conservatory or in the mountains. Most of our friends live close by.
How did this slowing down come about?
Philippe S.: Sometime at the beginning of this century most people realised that covering more kilometres does not improve quality of life. It became clear that in fact this was taking us up a blind alley. Of course, it also needed pressure from the environmental side, as the natural catastrophes linked to climate change became ever more severe.
In this scenario, sustainability is guaranteed exclusively by free market measures. Incentive taxes make transport more and more expensive until demand reaches a tolerable level. Only a small, wealthy class can afford unlimited mobility.
The Märki family lives on the edge of a big city. Stefanie (38), currently unemployed, is a tourism specialist, Walter (37) works in the communications industry. Their two children are called Klara (17) and Severin (19).
Stefanie M.: The whole development began while I was still at primary school. The price of petrol was continually and artificially raised. In view of the worrying climate developments, this was the only way to reduce the CO2 emissions. I can still remember very clearly when my parents had to sell their car on 5 July 2015. It was a big step for them.
Were there no protests against this development?
Walter M.: Yes, many people demanded that the government should be more involved in a compensatory way. But finally the view that the free market is the best steering instrument prevailed.
Stefanie M.: The government did do quite a lot to promote sustainable technologies.
And today?
Severin M.: I think it's unfair that we can't afford a car any more, and only one flight a year. When I think that the big shots jet all over the world and their wives fly to London to go to the hairdresser's!
Klara M.: I think someone who is productive should be able to treat him- or herself. This kind of jealousy is just stupid.
Are you happy with your form of mobility?
Walter M.: In my job I am often on the move, and in the packed trains that is not always comfortable. Then I do dream of being on the motorway in my own car. Traffic jams have long been a thing of the past.
This scenario assumes a basic right to mobility for everyone - independent of status and income. The government ensures that there is the fairest possible distribution of the transport services available.
The Theiler family owns a home on the edge of a medium-sized conurbation. Simone (41) works as a music teacher, Hermann (45) runs a small architect's office. They have two children, Fränzi (18) and Urs (17).
Simone T.: What changed our life most was the introduction of "MobiCredits". Every year the transport service available to each household is recalculated. If a household consumes less than allocated, it can sell the rest on the "MobiExchange" market. And those who want more transport services can go shopping on this exchange - if they can afford it. Everything is recorded on the "MobiCard", a plastic card with a chip that records all transport services.
But isn't that very complicated?
Hermann T.: Of course we create work for an army of people at the government's Mobility Agency, so that all the paperwork is in order. But none of the other solutions was popular enough with the voters. What is important is that it does not hinder technological progress. Here the government had to build in incentives. But it's working very well now.
And what impact does the MobiCredit have on your mobility behaviour?
Simone T.: It does need a bit of planning. There is a "Mobiplanner" in all the local communities, and this helps us put together our household budget. We decided against a car, because we like to fly south to warm places in winter. We couldn't afford both.
Fränzi T.: This year Urs's stay in England was a major drain on our budget. So I had to postpone my plans for a longer trip abroad to next year.
